Indian stock markets tumbled sharply with the Sensex falling 800 points and nearly 4 lakh crore wiped out in a single session. Here are the 6 key factors, including rupee weakness and global cues, behind the crash.
Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices.
Despite geopolitical tensions and FII outflows, Indian small and midcap stocks have not only recovered losses but are also outperforming largecap indices, driven by attractive valuations, domestic institutional support, and a rebound in earnings.
'Every year we import approximately $70 billion worth of gold -- closer to $72 billion in 2025-2026, an all-time record.' 'There is no parallel for this anywhere in the world. And this love for gold will not disappear overnight.'
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have significantly increased their holdings in Nifty 500 companies, reaching a record 20.9 per cent by the end of March, while Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) reduced their ownership to an all-time low of 17.1 per cent, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Shares of power generation-related companies surged on Wednesday, with the BSE Power index hitting a new high of 8,497, driven by strong demand, robust order books, and significant capital expenditure announcements from key players like Hitachi Energy India, Adani Green Energy, and CG Power and Industrial Solutions.
The index is currently trading at 149 per cent of its historical P/B valuation, surpassing its previous peak of 125 per cent made in 2020-21.
Indian equity benchmarks rose nearly 2 per cent on Thursday, capping a truncated trading week with their strongest weekly performance in over four years. The rally was sparked by renewed risk-on sentiment following progress in trade negotiations and expanded tariff exemptions.
'You set up your SIPs and you do not touch them. Not during COVID, not during a war scare, not when your neighbour tells you the market is finished. You let the noise pass over you.' 'The beauty of this approach is that it does not require courage or conviction in the moment. It just requires inertia -- keep the SIP running and do not look at your portfolio too often.'
After three consecutive months of heavy selling, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in the first week of February, infusing more than Rs 8,100 crore in Indian equities, aided by improving risk sentiment, along with a trade deal with the US.
'When markets go into a budget with excessive optimism, the risk of disappointment is higher.'
The Indian rupee plummeted to an all-time low of 95.80 against the US dollar, settling at 95.66, driven by elevated crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, despite potential RBI intervention and import curbs on gold.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, snapped a three-day rally, tumbling nearly 1 per cent due to heavy selling in IT stocks, a jump in crude oil prices, foreign fund outflows, and fears of prolonged instability in West Asia.
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
Bharat Forge reported modest Q4FY26 results but provided strong guidance, anticipating significant growth from its defence, aerospace, and data centre segments, with a projected 25 per cent revenue growth in Indian manufacturing for FY27, despite current high valuations.
Eight of India's top-10 most valued firms saw their combined market valuation increase by Rs 1,87,497.45 crore last week, with Bharti Airtel emerging as the largest gainer, reflecting a positive trend in the equities market.
If FIIs come in looking for higher returns, this will help turn India Incs fortunes but a reform-oriented government is critical, says Nilesh Shah.
Aviation stocks experienced a significant surge following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp decline in crude oil prices. This development has positively impacted stock markets and the broader economic outlook for India.
Quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data announcements and global trends will drive the Indian stock markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Stock markets would remain closed on Wednesday for the Guru Nanak Gurpurab holiday.
'What exactly is on the prime minister's mind, we do not know. But it feels like the government wants the country to be prepared for unseen challenges ahead.'
'The day that the market realises that they've overspent (on AI) and there's a sudden collapse in the capex, then India can start outperforming again.'
Just because India has outperformed the US markets in a short recent period, it does not mean that this is based on fundamental reasons that are here to stay, points out Debashis Basu.
Indian frontline benchmarks - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have rallied around 12 per cent each since June-end and outperformed their global peers by a wide margin. On Thursday, the US Fed hiked interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps) - the third such hike this year - and surprised the markets by projecting further sizable hikes in the coming months. With the latest hike, the Fed fund rate (FFR) now stands in the range of 3 - 3.25 per cent and is highest since January 2008.
'At the first sign of real trouble, that money will move. There will be a run.'
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew over Rs 22,530 crore ($2.5 billion) from Indian equities so far this month amid rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar, continuing their selling streak from last year. This came following an outflow of Rs 1.66 lakh crore ($18.9 billion) recorded in 2025, triggered by volatile currency movements, global trade tensions and concerns over potential US tariffs and stretched market valuations.
Gold and silver prices are poised to maintain their record-setting rally in the coming week as investors focus on global inflation data and key macroeconomic indicators that shape central bank policy paths, analysts said.
'As re-industrialisation gathers pace across regions like Asia, Europe and the US, a wide range of products and inputs will see demand.'
Foreign investors have remained cautious ahead of the Union Budget amid expectations of limited policy changes.
10 stocks from the Nifty 200 index that offer good growth potential and scope to deliver decent returns from current levels, based on brokerage estimates.
The Indian rupee saw a significant appreciation against the US dollar following President Trump's suspension of military strikes against Iran and the Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain its key interest rate. Market sentiment was further buoyed by positive comments from the RBI regarding the health of the banking sector.
The Indian markets have seen a good run in the last three months with the S&P BSE Sensex rising around 7 per cent and the Nifty50 moving up 7.5 per cent. The next leg of the market rally from here on, analysts suggest, will be driven by a growth in corporate earnings over the next few quarters. That said, they do not expect material / sharp downgrades to India Inc's earnings estimates despite headwinds for the economy.
'Oil is still well below its all-time highs, and the world is gradually running out of known reserves.'
Net inflows into equity mutual fund schemes moderated in FY26, falling by 27 per cent to about 3 trillion till February, as choppy markets and global uncertainties prompted investors to shift towards safer options like hybrid funds and gold ETFs.
Investors may increase exposure to mid and small-cap stocks as their risk-reward profile is more attractive currently, suggest Nitin Singh and Vinay Joseph.
It has mostly been a one-way street for markets that have moved up sharply since July. The front-line indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have gained 6.7 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in the past three months. The rally in mid- and small-caps has been sharper, with both indices surging 14 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, during this period. This sharp run has made analysts at Jefferies cautious.
'People become guided by emotions, fear of missing out, and greed. They tend to invest in booming sectors that may prove exceptionally expensive.' 'Typically, that represents the peak, and subsequently, they lose substantially.'
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has accused Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma of corruption and land grabbing, promising action if the Congress party wins the upcoming elections in Assam. Gandhi also criticised the BJP's governance and economic policies.
Indication of a potential US Federal Reserve rate cut may trigger optimism in the domestic equity market, with investors' attention shifting to the looming deadline for additional US tariffs on Indian goods in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said.
Recent developments - proposed changes to the goods and services tax (GST) rates and S&P Global Ratings' upgrade of India's long-term sovereign credit rating to BBB, with a stable outlook, - may not be enough to bring foreign investors back to Indian markets in a rush, feel analysts.
Just over a year ago, India was investors' top pick among EMs. Its slide down the rankings follows $30 billion (over 2.5 trillion) of foreign selling over the past 12-13 months.
